Geographic context is often consider relevant to motor insurance risk, yet public actuarial datasets provide limited location identifiers, constraining how this information can be incorporated and evaluated in claim-frequency models. This study examines how geographic information from alternative data sources can be incorporated into actuarial models for Motor Third Party Liability (MTPL) claim prediction under such constraints. Using the BeMTPL97 dataset, we adopt a zone-level modeling framework and evaluate predictive performance on unseen postcodes. Geographic information is introduced through two channels: environmental indicators from OpenStreetMap and CORINE Land Cover, and orthoimagery released by the Belgian National Geographic Institute for academic use. We evaluate the predictive contribution of coordinates, environmental features, and image embeddings across three baseline models: generalized linear models (GLMs), regularized GLMs, and gradient-boosted trees, while raw imagery is modeled using convolutional neural networks. Our results show that augmenting actuarial variables with constructed geographic information improves accuracy. Across experiments, both linear and tree-based models benefit most from combining coordinates with environmental features extracted at 5 km scale, while smaller neighborhoods also improve baseline specifications. Generally, image embeddings do not improve performance when environmental features are available; however, when such features are absent, pretrained vision-transformer embeddings enhance accuracy and stability for regularized GLMs. Our results show that the predictive value of geographic information in zone-level MTPL frequency models depends less on model complexity than on how geography is represented, and illustrate that geographic context can be incorporated despite limited individual-level spatial information.

Persistent homology (PH) encodes global information, such as cycles, and is thus increasingly integrated into graph neural networks (GNNs). PH methods in GNNs typically traverse an increasing sequence of subgraphs. In this work, we first expose limitations of this inclusion procedure. To remedy these shortcomings, we analyze contractions as a principled topological operation, in particular, for graph representation learning. We study the persistence of contraction sequences, which we call Contraction Homology (CH). We establish that forward PH and CH differ in expressivity. We then introduce Hourglass Persistence, a class of topological descriptors that interleave a sequence of inclusions and contractions to boost expressivity, learnability, and stability. We also study related families parametrized by two paradigms. We also discuss how our framework extends to simplicial and cellular networks. We further design efficient algorithms that are pluggable into end-to-end differentiable GNN pipelines, enabling consistent empirical improvements over many PH methods across standard real-world graph datasets. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/Aalto-QuML/Hourglass}{this https URL}.

Bayesian experimental design (BED) for complex physical systems is often limited by the nested inference required to estimate the expected information gain (EIG) or its gradients. Each outer sample induces a different posterior, creating a large and heterogeneous set of inference targets. Existing methods have to sacrifice either accuracy or efficiency: they either perform per-outer-sample posterior inference, which yields higher fidelity but at prohibitive computational cost, or amortize the inner inference across all outer samples for computational reuse, at the risk of degraded accuracy under posterior heterogeneity. To improve accuracy and maintain cost at the amortized level, we propose a grouped geometric pooled posterior framework that partitions outer samples into groups and constructs a pooled proposal for each group. While such grouping strategy would normally require generating separate proposal samples for different groups, our tailored ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) formulation generates these samples without extra forward-model evaluation cost. We also introduce a conservative diagnostic to assess importance-sampling quality to guide grouping. This grouping strategy improves within-group proposal-target alignment, yielding more accurate and stable estimators while keeping the cost comparable to amortized approaches. We evaluate the performance of our method on both Gaussian-linear and high-dimensional network-based model discrepancy calibration problems.

In this paper, we consider the problem of extraction of most informative features from time series that are regarded as observed values of stochastic processes satisfying the It{ô} stochastic differential equations with unknown random drift and diffusion coefficients. We do not attract any additional information and use only the information contained in the time series as it is. Therefore, as additional features, we use the parameters of statistically adjusted mixture-type models of the observed regularities of the behavior of the time series. Several algorithms of construction of these parameters are discussed. These algorithms are based on statistical reconstruction of the coefficients which, in turn, is based on statistical separation of normal mixtures. We obtain two types of parameters by the techniques of the uniform and non-uniform statistical reconstruction of the coefficients of the underlying It{ô} process. The reconstructed coefficients obtained by uniform techniques do not depend on the current value of the process, while the non-uniform techniques reconstruct the coefficients with the account of their dependence on the value of the process. Actually, the non-uniform techniques used in this paper represent a stochastic analog of the Taylor expansion for the time series. The efficiency of the obtained additional features is compared by using them in the autoregressive algorithms of prediction of time series. In order to obtain pure conclusion that is not affected by unwanted factors, say, related to a special choice of the architecture of the neural network prediction methods, we used only simple autoregressive algorithms. We show that the use of additional statistical features improves the prediction.

Smooth functions on graphs have wide applications in manifold and semi-supervised learning. In this paper, we study a bandit problem where the payoffs of arms are smooth on a graph. This framework is suitable for solving online learning problems that involve graphs, such as content-based recommendation. In this problem, each item we can recommend is a node and its expected rating is similar to its neighbors. The goal is to recommend items that have high expected ratings. We aim for the algorithms where the cumulative regret with respect to the optimal policy would not scale poorly with the number of nodes. In particular, we introduce the notion of an effective dimension, which is small in real-world graphs, and propose two algorithms for solving our problem that scale linearly and sublinearly in this dimension. Our experiments on real-world content recommendation problem show that a good estimator of user preferences for thousands of items can be learned from just tens of nodes evaluations.

Recursive architectures such as Tiny Recursive Models (TRMs) perform implicit reasoning through iterative latent computation, yet the geometric structure of these reasoning trajectories remains poorly understood. We investigate the activation manifold of TRMs during recursive unrolling and find that activations occupy an effectively linear, low-dimensional subspace whose principal directions can be tracked dynamically with cheap power iterations. This suggests that weight-sharing concentrates iterative computation along a small number of dominant eigendirections, and we find that this concentration varies sharply across computational sites. We exploit this structure through LASER (Low-Rank Activation SVD for Efficient Recursion), a dynamic compression framework that maintains an evolving low-rank basis via matrix-free subspace tracking with a fidelity-triggered reset mechanism, achieving ${\sim}60\%$ activation memory savings with no statistically significant accuracy degradation. Our analysis raises questions about how recursive architectures allocate representational capacity during implicit reasoning, and whether this concentration can be exploited to improve the efficiency and stability of latent computation.

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2 - 6 weeks ahead), due to compounding errors and persistent biases. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and AI models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), PBC doubles the subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System and improves the skill of the operationally-debiased dynamical model for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature, and 98% of precipitation targets. We designed PBC for operational deployment, and, in ECMWF's 2025 real-time forecasting competition, its global forecasts placed first for all weather variables and lead times, outperforming the dynamical models from six operational forecasting centers, an international dynamical multi-model ensemble, ECMWF's AI Forecasting System, and the forecasting systems of 34 teams worldwide. These probabilistic skill gains translate into more accurate prediction of extreme events and have the potential to improve agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable communities.

We study bandit best-arm identification with arbitrary and potentially adversarial rewards. A simple random uniform learner obtains the optimal rate of error in the adversarial scenario. However, this type of strategy is suboptimal when the rewards are sampled stochastically. Therefore, we ask: Can we design a learner that performs optimally in both the stochastic and adversarial problems while not being aware of the nature of the rewards? First, we show that designing such a learner is impossible in general. In particular, to be robust to adversarial rewards, we can only guarantee optimal rates of error on a subset of the stochastic problems. We give a lower bound that characterizes the optimal rate in stochastic problems if the strategy is constrained to be robust to adversarial rewards. Finally, we design a simple parameter-free algorithm and show that its probability of error matches (up to log factors) the lower bound in stochastic problems, and it is also robust to adversarial ones.

Antibody lead optimization is inherently a multi-objective challenge in drug discovery. Achieving a balance between different drug-like properties is crucial for the development of viable candidates, and this search becomes exponentially challenging as desired properties grow. The ever-growing zoo of sophisticated in silico tools for predicting antibody properties calls for an efficient joint optimization procedure to overcome resource-intensive sequential filtering pipelines. We present BOAT, a versatile Bayesian optimization framework for multi-property antibody engineering. Our `plug-and-play' framework couples uncertainty-aware surrogate modeling with a genetic algorithm to jointly optimize various predicted antibody traits while enabling efficient exploration of sequence space. Through systematic benchmarking against genetic algorithms and newer generative learning approaches, we demonstrate competitive performance with state-of-the-art methods for multi-objective protein optimization. We identify clear regimes where surrogate-driven optimization outperforms expensive generative approaches and establish practical limits imposed by sequence dimensionality and oracle costs.

t-SNE has gained popularity as a dimension reduction technique, especially for visualizing data. It is well-known that all dimension reduction techniques may lose important features of the data. We provide a mathematical framework for understanding this loss for t-SNE by establishing a number of results in different scenarios showing how important features of data are lost by using t-SNE.